The Oscars this year are set to take place on March 15. For the many beloved movie geeks in my life, the Oscars countdown has been going on for a very long time, and there’s a lot of research going into their final predictions. For me, an amateur cinephile, predicting the Oscars is just about as research-oriented as putting a 9-leg parlay on random college basketball teams, and I think I have a pretty similar success rate in both. 

There are 24 awards presented during the show, and while I haven’t seen all the films yet, I REALLY haven’t seen any of the shorts or most of the documentaries, so I won’t weigh in on those.

Finally, just to get this out of the way, don’t hold me to these predictions (just like I never put more than $1 on my 9-leg parlays). 

Best Picture

Pick: One Battle After Another; Prediction: One Battle After Another; Spoiler: Sinners

Why wait to say it: my Best Picture pick is One Battle. We’re so lucky to have a neck-in-neck Best Picture race, and it’s also really interesting to have one of the two frontrunners be a horror movie. Sinners is obviously so much more than a vampire horror movie, but it feels notable. I don’t necessarily want to make a call about whether Sinners or One Battle deserves the award more, but I think that when all the votes are tallied, One Battle will pull through. 

Actor in a Leading Role

Pick: Wagner Moura; Prediction: Timothee Chalamet; Spoiler: Ethan Hawke

Michael B. Jordan just won for Best Lead Actor at the SAG Awards, so I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that there’s definitely a path for him to win at the Oscars. If it’s my ballot, Wagner Moura gave a fantastic, touching performance in The Secret Agent, and I’m rooting for him all day long, and not just because I cried through the entire final 30 minutes. Ethan Hawke is a big swing here for the spoiler, but I wouldn’t be sad to see him win, and from what I’ve heard of Blue Moon (I haven’t watched it yet…), his performance was the highlight. For such a mainstay in Hollywood, maybe it’s time to recognize him. Above all, though, I think this might be the year Timothee gets his win (even though I think his first Oscar should definitely be for Dune: Part Three next year). As a note, my film professor does think it’s going to be Timothee Chalamet (I’ll leave him unnamed, just in case that prediction doesn’t come true). 

Actor in a Supporting Role

Pick: Sean Penn; Prediction: Stellan Skarsgard; Spoiler: Sean Penn

I’m still absolutely baffled that Benicio del Toro hasn’t won anything except Critics’ Choice  – he’s an obvious highlight of One Battle. However, I (slightly apologetically) still think Sean Penn gives a ridiculous and yet still terrifying performance of power and buffoonery that is so important to the film, and I’d love to see him win. If I’m gameifying the awards, though, I think the One Battle nominees are going to cancel each other out, and Stellan Skarsgard has a path to the award.

Actress in a Leading Role

Pick: Rose Byrne; Prediction: Jessie Buckley; Spoiler: N/A

If you know anything about this awards season, it’s likely that Jessie Buckley has been winning constantly for Hamnet, and it seems like she’ll be a lock for the Oscar – I don’t really see anyone spoiling it. With that being said, Rose Byrne is stellar in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, and she does basically do a one-woman show for the first hour, and I’m a little disappointed that the race isn’t more competitive.  

Actress in a Supporting Role 

Pick: Teyana Taylor; Prediction: Amy Madigan; Spoiler: Teyana Taylor

I’ve been pulling for a Teyana Taylor win for months, but in all honesty, I’m more enthusiastic after seeing videos of her on the red carpet with her daughter at the SAG Awards. Unfortunately, I have no faith in Academy voters and I’m feeling like Amy Madigan’s going to win. 

Directing

Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson; Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson; Spoiler: Ryan Coogler

It seems strange to imagine the Best Director winner not directing the Best Picture winner, but it’s definitely not unprecedented. All this to say, I still think One Battle will win Best Picture, but I think there’s a real chance for Ryan Coogler to win Best Director (and I wouldn’t be mad about that at all). 

Casting

Pick: One Battle After Another; Prediction: Sinners; Spoiler: maybe One Battle After Another

There’s a new Oscar in town, and from what I’ve heard, most people think it’s going to be Sinners. In justifying my pick here, I will say that One Battle’s casting director, Cassandra Kulukundis, found Chase Infiniti, and that’s worthy of an Oscar, without even mentioning Regina Hall, Sean Penn, or Benicio del Toro. All things considered, Sinners’ Miles Caton was also plucked out of nowhere, but I really think the Benicio del Toro Supporting Actor loss should be avenged here. 

Cinematography

Pick: Train Dreams; Prediction: One Battle After Another; Spoiler: Sinners

One Battle would deserve this win just for the road scene. I will say that my pick is still Train Dreams, maybe just because I’m a sucker for incredibly moving, static shots that linger. Maybe I don’t appreciate the really active cinematography of One Battle enough (sorry). 

Film Editing

Pick: One Battle After Another; Prediction: One Battle After Another; Spoiler: F1

Cinematography and Film Editing are both considered Best Picture predictors; that is, winning one, or both, of these categories puts you in pretty good shape in the Best Picture Race. Maybe that’s why I think One Battle will pull through on Best Picture, because I think it’s going to take Film Editing, too. In second place, though, I think F1 has a good case for an editing award. 

International Feature Film

Pick: The Secret Agent; Prediction: Sentimental Value; Spoiler: The Secret Agent

I think Sentimental Value will likely have this one in the bag, especially with four acting nominations. However, I would be remiss if I didn’t note that Brazilian films tend to do well at the Oscars (see also: I’m Still Here last year), and The Secret Agent was one of my top films of the year. If you haven’t already, see it.  

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Pick: One Battle After Another; Prediction: One Battle After Another; Spoiler: N/A

One Battle After Another feels like a lock here, and I don’t think anything will spoil its win, but it should be Train Dreams. While One Battle definitely deserves the win, if they gave out a half-Oscar for honorable mentions, I’d be pulling hard for the beautiful meditation on love, labor and life that is Train Dreams. 

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Pick: Sinners; Prediction: Sinners; Spoiler: Sentimental Value 

This is awkward, but Sinners is the only film nominated in this category that I’ve seen (fake cinephile). I asked a real film-goer in my life, and he said that his prediction is also Sinners, but that his pick is It Was Just an Accident.

Music (Original Score)

Pick: One Battle After Another; Prediction: Sinners; Spoiler: One Battle After Another

I just want One Battle score composer Johnny Greenwood to win. Ludwig Göransson’s Sinners score has been doing really well in the awards race, winning at the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes and Grammys, but the One Battle score will put you right back in the theater. “One Battle After Another,” specifically, should win this award. 

Production Design

Pick: Sinners; Prediction: Frankenstein; Spoiler: Sinners 

I might just be anti-Frankenstein, but I do think Sinners deserves this win. 

Sound

Pick: F1; Prediction: F1; Spoiler: N/A

All signs point to F1, and I do not have the requisite knowledge to disagree with the signs. 

Visual Effects

Pick: Avatar: Fire and Ash; Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash; Spoiler: probably N/A

My afirementiomed true film-goer source says that Avatar will win, and that there’s probably no spoiler here – and he’s very committed to awards season, so I trust him. But you all should do the same at your own risk.

Animated Feature Film 

Pick: KPop Demon Hunters; Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters; Spoiler: N/A

As above, all signs point to KPop Demon Hunters, and since I have not seen a single animated film yet, I’m with the signs. 

Costume Design

Pick: Frankenstein; Prediction: Frankenstein; Spoiler: Sinners

While I am on the whole not a fan of Frankenstein, I must admit that Mia Goth’s costuming is a great case for a Kate Hawley Frankenstein costume design win. Oscar-winning Ruth E. Carter’s Sinners costume design might pull through, and it would also be deserved, but my prediction is still Frankenstein. 

Makeup and Hairstyling

Pick: The Smashing Machine; Prediction: Frankenstein; Spoiler: Sinners

I’m going to be the first person ever to argue for a Smashing Machine Oscar, but I am not ashamed. I just think it should be recognized for something, and this is the only place it can happen (but it’ll still be Frankenstein). 

Music (Original Song) 

Pick: Sinners; Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters; Spoiler: Sinners

I listened to “I Lied to You” so much that my Spotify stats were irreparably damaged, and so Sinners should absolutely take this one, but KPop Demon Hunters definitely earned it, if only because of the feat of a film’s original song permeating the public consciousness.